disclaimer: так как математик из меня не особо и формальное решение задачи вероятности я не осилил, я пользовался утилитой dicelab для некоторых задач и говнокодил симулировал множественные броски при помощи программы(https://github.com/tunasalat/tbh_probability/blob/master/roll_tbh.py). Все мы люди и можем ошибаться, и если я где-то допустил ошибку — дайте мне знать. Это очень важно, на кону может быть судьба мира(пусть и воображаемого).
echo 'count keep >= 4 d6' | dicelab -c
Успехи Вероятность 0 0.500000 1 0.500000
echo 'count keep >= 4 2#d6' | dicelab -c
Успехи Вероятность 0 0.250000 1 0.500000 2 0.250000
echo 'let A = d6 in if (keep == 6 A) then count keep >= 4 2#d6 else count keep >= 4 A' | dicelab -c
Успехи Вероятность 0 0.541667 1 0.416667 2 0.041667
Вероятность 2-х и более успехов при взрывном 3d6 : 46.169%. Да уж, ожидаемо...
Рискованная стратегия с одним бустом: 56.586%Рискованная стратегия с двумя бустами: 66.091%Рискованная стратегия с тремя бустами: 70.085%
Осторожно-взрывная стратегия с одним бустом: 67.231%Осторожно-взрывная стратегия с двумя бустами: 72.546%Осторожно-взрывная стратегия с тремя бустами: 74.185%
Мирная стратегия с одним бустом: 70.829%Мирная стратегия с двумя бустами: 74.166%Мирная стратегия с тремя бустами: 74.262%
Whenever a 6 is rolled, the player has the option to keep that 6 as the rolled score, or to ignore it and roll two dice instead. If any of the rerolled dice result in a 6, the player has the option to explode that die again.Some special rules give modifiers on certain Q rolls. Any such special rule gives a number of +1 “Boosts” to be added to the dice rolls. Each Boost MAY be applied to any one die roll after the dice have been rolled. You may apply only ONE +1 Boost per die. Boosting a result is NEVER mandatory. Each Boost can be applied to only one die after dice are rolled, with the following limitations:1) dice that score 1 cannot be Boosted; and2) you may give only a single +1 Boost to any singledie.Dice that roll 1 cannot be boosted; in other words, a roll of a 1 is always a failure and can never be improved. A character can use the Boosts to “explode” his dice (turning his 5s into 6s). Thanks to exploding dice, skilled characters will sometimes be able to roll more than 3 successes on a single Q roll – therefore accomplishing otherwise impossible feats. Remaining levels may be used to boost any exploded dice, too. The player may always pick and choose where and when to apply his boosts.Example: a character with two boosts who needs two successes with Q4 rolls a 1, 2 and 5. She can just ignore the roll of 2, boost the 5 and explode the resulting 6, thus still having one boost. The 1 may not be boosted and is always a failure.Alika needs to bash down a door. The door is made of oakwood reinforced with steel, so the GM decides that at least two successes are needed. Alika rolls 3 dice. She has a Quality of 4+, so she needs a 4 or more on any die to score a success. The player rolls 3, 4 and 1. The 4 is a success. Alika is Strong 2, so she can add a Boost to the 3, bringing it to 4, therefore scoring two successes total. She can add the other Boost to the 4, bringing it to 5 but this will not give her any special advantage; she cannot boost the 1, so it stays a 1. She scores two successes and the door goes down – barely. Alika meets another locked door in her way. Again, her barbarian thews clash with steel bands and oakwood, and two successes are needed to bring down the door. Alika rolls three dice, scoring a 6, a 1 and a 2. The 1 stays a 1 and is a failure. The 2 if boosted would become a 3, so it would still be a failure. Alika chooses not to use a Boost on it. The 6 gives one success, but that’s not enough to bring down the door. So Alika decides to explode the 6 into two dice. She rolls two dice, getting a 3 and a 4. Since she still has 2 Boosts available from her Strong 2 ability, she adds +1 to the 3 and she finally scores two successes. The door comes off its hinges and slams into the ground!All characters begin the game with one Hero point and can gain more during play. One Hero point can be spent in lieu of a die roll: the die is not rolled and it is assumed to have rolled a 6 (with no exploding possible). The intention to use a Hero Point must be announced before rolling the die. A Hero points can also save the character from certainresults in the damage tables, or it can be used to receive a +2 to all Initiative rolls in an encounter (the character must spend the Hero point before rolling for Initiative in that encounter). Once used, Hero points are gone forever.
Как видно, перебрасывание шестерок понижает вероятность успеха. Впрочем, обязательно возникнут ситуации(например, 2-2-6 или 2-4-6), когда именно переброс шестерки будет последним шансом склонить фортуну на сторону героев. Да и не такие ли качества, как отвага и способность идти на риск, когда ставки заведомо против тебя делают героем обычного человека?
Автор
Тема: Взрывать или нет? Обзор Tales of Blades and Heroes и исследование механики. (Прочитано 1914 раз)